Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises for hedging has somewhat weakened, and purchasing enthusiasm for lead ingots has increased. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,990.5/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session, touched a high of $2,009.5/mt, entered the European session and fluctuated considerably due to increased bear positions, continued to fall to a low of $1,988/mt by the end of the session, and finally closed at $1,993.5/mt, down $6/mt, a decrease of 0.30%. A small bullish candlestick was recorded.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened lower with a gap at 17,170 yuan/mt, fluctuated rangebound around the daily average line, with a low of 17,140 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed at 17,165 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.09%. A small bearish candlestick was formed.

On the macro front:

Trump is expected to announce the US Fed Chairman candidate early next year, actively hinting that Hassett will be the next Fed Chairman. The OECD maintained its global economic growth expectations for this year and next, and expects the interest rate cut cycle in major economies to end next year. Metal derivatives trading surged, with CME Group's daily average trading volume in November hitting the second-highest record in history. The PBOC net injected 50 billion yuan via open market government bond transactions in November. Is the wave of LFP price increases coming? Lopal: Currently communicating with customers about price increase matters. The staff member stated directly that current raw material prices for LFP are rising, profit margins in the LFP industry are under pressure, coupled with continuously expanding market demand, price increases are an inevitable trend in the industry. China called for strengthening supervision of trade measures and enhancing transparency of trade policies at the WTO.

:

Lead ingot supply in the Shanghai market was limited, some suppliers had no spot cargo available for sale in the short term and thus suspended quotations. Meanwhile, primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production sites were relatively ample, suppliers mostly actively quoted and sold goods, some quotes showed a discount expanded by 20-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2601 contract compared to yesterday, while against the SMM #1 lead average price, they maintained a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt ex-works. Additionally, secondary lead enterprises increased shipments relatively, coupled with some imported lead arriving at ports and being quoted for sale, downstream enterprises had more procurement options, their favour for cargoes self-picked up from production sites decreased, and transactions turned quiet.

Inventory: On December 2, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925 mt to 256,950 mt; as of December 1, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions surveyed by SMM fell to 30,700 mt, down 6,300 mt from November 24 and down 4,300 mt from November 27, dropping to a near one-month low.

Today's lead price forecast:

Primary lead side, maintenance at delivery brand enterprises persists, regional supply differences widen; secondary lead side, lead prices stopped falling and rebounded, coupled with waste lead-acid battery prices not yet following the increase, lead smelting profits saw some repair, smelters' willingness to ship goods showed positive signs, but spot order supply remains tight. On the consumption side, demand for lead-acid batteries has relatively improved, with enterprises raising their operating rates. After lead prices stopped falling, the risk-averse wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises has somewhat weakened, and increased purchasing enthusiasm has provided support for lead prices.

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